What is the AI Kill Threshold?

The AI Kill Threshold is a probability (0-100%) indicating how likely your occupation will be replaced by AI. It is calculated using the Swiss Cheese Barrier Model across four independent dimensions: Learnability, Evaluation Objectivity, Risk Tolerance, and Human Presence.

How is the replacement probability calculated?

Using a Weighted Power Mean with r=-2 across four dimensions. Learnability has weight 0.30, Evaluation Objectivity 0.25, Risk Tolerance 0.20, Human Presence 0.25. An additional E+O interaction bonus applies when both knowledge is explicit and evaluation is objective.

What data sources does AIR use?

AIR aggregates from BLS OES 2023 (798 occupations employment data), O*NET (task structure labels), Eloundou et al. 2023 (LLM exposure measurement across 19,265 tasks), OpenAI GDPval (AI vs human expert blind evaluation), and the World Economic Forum Future of Jobs Report 2025.

How does AIR differ from MBTI?

MBTI measures personality. AIR measures occupational AI-replacement risk. Both use four binary dimensions producing a 4-letter code, but AIR's dimensions are grounded in automation economics literature and the output is backed by employment data from 798 real occupations.

What is the current industry-wide AI replacement rate?

As of 2026, the employment-weighted industry-wide AI replacement rate is 24.7%, calculated as Task Exposure (34.8%, Eloundou et al. 2023) times AI Win Rate vs human experts (71.3%, OpenAI GDPval).

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EORH

The License Wall

“AI has the knowledge, but not the license on the wall”

Medium Risk

Replacement Probability

38%–55%

Predicted Year Range

2032–2040

Risk Tier

Medium Risk

Explicit + Objective + Rigid + Human: Transparent knowledge + regulated + clients trust you — AI only lacks entry

Superpower

Regulatory barriers and institutional trust that protect your position

Kryptonite

Regulations change — and AI lobbying is a thing

Four Barrier Dimensions

Learnability — Explicit (E)

Can AI acquire and learn the knowledge and skills your job requires?

Evaluation Objectivity — Objective (O)

Does your work have a "right answer"? Can quality be objectively measured?

Risk Tolerance — Rigid (R)

If AI makes a mistake, can the consequences be tolerated? Can its output be trusted?

Human Presence — Human (H)

Is your value in "what you produce" or "who you are"?

Why This Profile Is Exposed

Knowledge is explicit and quality is objectively measurable — the two dimensions AI masters fastest. Once trust barriers erode, replacement accelerates.

Natural Defenses

Errors are irreversible AND clients trust you personally — a double barrier. Regulatory licensing, professional liability, and personal relationships create a multi-layered defense.

Typical Occupations

Business & Financial Operations (13) — licensed roles, Legal (23) — notary/compliance

Sample Career Risk Scores

Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists
Data synthesis is AI-native — analysts who cannot interpret qualitative signals are exposed
31
Human Resources Specialists
Resume screening and onboarding workflows heavily automated — human judgment at edge cases
21
Business Operations Specialists
Process optimization roles increasingly augmented by AI tools — value shifts to implementation
14
Management Analysts
Structured problem-solving and report writing — AI handles research; humans handle client trust
13
Project Management Specialists
Coordination and status tracking automated by PM tools — value is in stakeholder management
11
Accountants and Auditors
Compliance and professional liability create barriers — AI augments rather than replaces CPAs
7

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