What is the AI Kill Threshold?

The AI Kill Threshold is a probability (0-100%) indicating how likely your occupation will be replaced by AI. It is calculated using the Swiss Cheese Barrier Model across four independent dimensions: Learnability, Evaluation Objectivity, Risk Tolerance, and Human Presence.

How is the replacement probability calculated?

Using a Weighted Power Mean with r=-2 across four dimensions. Learnability has weight 0.30, Evaluation Objectivity 0.25, Risk Tolerance 0.20, Human Presence 0.25. An additional E+O interaction bonus applies when both knowledge is explicit and evaluation is objective.

What data sources does AIR use?

AIR aggregates from BLS OES 2023 (798 occupations employment data), O*NET (task structure labels), Eloundou et al. 2023 (LLM exposure measurement across 19,265 tasks), OpenAI GDPval (AI vs human expert blind evaluation), and the World Economic Forum Future of Jobs Report 2025.

How does AIR differ from MBTI?

MBTI measures personality. AIR measures occupational AI-replacement risk. Both use four binary dimensions producing a 4-letter code, but AIR's dimensions are grounded in automation economics literature and the output is backed by employment data from 798 real occupations.

What is the current industry-wide AI replacement rate?

As of 2026, the employment-weighted industry-wide AI replacement rate is 24.7%, calculated as Task Exposure (34.8%, Eloundou et al. 2023) times AI Win Rate vs human experts (71.3%, OpenAI GDPval).

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TSRH

The Iron Fortress

“Four walls between you and AI — it can't even see you”

Very Low Risk

Replacement Probability

3%–12%

Predicted Year Range

∞

Risk Tier

Very Low Risk

Tacit + Subjective + Rigid + Human: All four dimensions block AI replacement

Superpower

Every dimension blocks AI: tacit knowledge, subjective judgment, irreversible stakes, and human trust

Kryptonite

Your fortress is strong — but the world around it is changing

Four Barrier Dimensions

Learnability — Tacit (T)

Can AI acquire and learn the knowledge and skills your job requires?

Evaluation Objectivity — Subjective (S)

Does your work have a "right answer"? Can quality be objectively measured?

Risk Tolerance — Rigid (R)

If AI makes a mistake, can the consequences be tolerated? Can its output be trusted?

Human Presence — Human (H)

Is your value in "what you produce" or "who you are"?

Why This Profile Is Exposed

No dimension is AI-favorable. Your only theoretical vulnerability is a future intelligence vastly beyond current imagination — post-AGI, post-singularity territory.

Natural Defenses

All four barriers active simultaneously: knowledge lives in the body, quality is in the eye of the beholder, errors are irreversible, and people trust the person. No current or projected AI technology can breach all four. Think top executives making bet-the-company decisions, crisis negotiators, elite surgeons with decades of reputation.

Typical Occupations

Management (11) — top executives, Community & Social Service (21), Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports & Media (27) — elite athletes

Sample Career Risk Scores

Computer and Information Systems Managers
Technical strategy and vendor management — AI tools accelerate work but decision authority stays human
16
General and Operations Managers
Organizational leadership and stakeholder accountability cannot be delegated to an algorithm
8
Sales Managers
Pipeline judgment, team coaching, and client relationships require human intuition and credibility
8
Medical and Health Services Managers
Healthcare compliance and clinical staff management require regulatory expertise and human leadership
4
Financial Managers
Capital allocation decisions carry fiduciary responsibility — AI informs but cannot sign off
4
Child, Family, and School Social Workers
Crisis intervention, family trust, and welfare decisions are deeply relational human work
1

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