What is the AI Kill Threshold?

The AI Kill Threshold is a probability (0-100%) indicating how likely your occupation will be replaced by AI. It is calculated using the Swiss Cheese Barrier Model across four independent dimensions: Learnability, Evaluation Objectivity, Risk Tolerance, and Human Presence.

How is the replacement probability calculated?

Using a Weighted Power Mean with r=-2 across four dimensions. Learnability has weight 0.30, Evaluation Objectivity 0.25, Risk Tolerance 0.20, Human Presence 0.25. An additional E+O interaction bonus applies when both knowledge is explicit and evaluation is objective.

What data sources does AIR use?

AIR aggregates from BLS OES 2023 (798 occupations employment data), O*NET (task structure labels), Eloundou et al. 2023 (LLM exposure measurement across 19,265 tasks), OpenAI GDPval (AI vs human expert blind evaluation), and the World Economic Forum Future of Jobs Report 2025.

How does AIR differ from MBTI?

MBTI measures personality. AIR measures occupational AI-replacement risk. Both use four binary dimensions producing a 4-letter code, but AIR's dimensions are grounded in automation economics literature and the output is backed by employment data from 798 real occupations.

What is the current industry-wide AI replacement rate?

As of 2026, the employment-weighted industry-wide AI replacement rate is 24.7%, calculated as Task Exposure (34.8%, Eloundou et al. 2023) times AI Win Rate vs human experts (71.3%, OpenAI GDPval).

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TSFP

The Soul Craftsman

“Your imperfections are what make your work perfect”

Medium Risk

Ersetzungswahrscheinlichkeit

30%–48%

Prognostizierter Jahresbereich

2034–2044

Risikostufe

Medium Risk

Tacit + Subjective + Flexible + Product: Physical experience + subjective quality, but fixable errors, results-only

Superkraft

Physical mastery meets artistic vision — each piece carries your signature

Schwäche

Mass production doesn't need signatures

Vier Barriere-Dimensionen

Lernbarkeit — Implizit (T)

Kann KI das Wissen und die Fähigkeiten erwerben und erlernen, die Ihr Job erfordert?

Bewertungsobjektivität — Subjektiv (S)

Gibt es bei Ihrer Arbeit eine „richtige Antwort"? Lässt sich die Qualität objektiv messen?

Fehlertoleranz — Flexibel (F)

Wenn die KI einen Fehler macht, sind die Folgen tragbar? Kann man ihrem Output vertrauen?

Personenabhängigkeit — Produkt (P)

Liegt Ihr Wert in „was Sie produzieren" oder in „wer Sie sind"?

Warum exponiert

Errors are tolerable and only the output matters — in domains where AI can iterate cheaply, it will eventually catch up on taste and physical skills.

Natürliche Verteidigung

Physical mastery + subjective quality = the artisan barrier. You know through your hands, and quality is "I know it when I see it" — both are deeply human.

Typische Berufe

Food Preparation & Serving (35) — independent chef, Farming, Fishing & Forestry (45)

Beispielberufe-Risiko

First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers
Real-time team coordination and quality control in fast-paced physical environment
4
Cooks, Restaurant
Creative adaptation to orders and ingredients in live service — kitchen robots limited to narrow tasks
1
Fast Food and Counter Workers
Self-service kiosks replacing order-taking; food assembly and customer interaction still human
2
Waiters and Waitresses
Hospitality and upselling are relationship-driven — robotic servers exist but guest experience suffers
2
Bartenders
Social ritual, improvisation, and reading the room are core to the role
2
Food Preparation Workers
Manual prep work in varied kitchen settings — automation focused on narrow, high-volume tasks only
2

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