What is the AI Kill Threshold?

The AI Kill Threshold is a probability (0-100%) indicating how likely your occupation will be replaced by AI. It is calculated using the Swiss Cheese Barrier Model across four independent dimensions: Learnability, Evaluation Objectivity, Risk Tolerance, and Human Presence.

How is the replacement probability calculated?

Using a Weighted Power Mean with r=-2 across four dimensions. Learnability has weight 0.30, Evaluation Objectivity 0.25, Risk Tolerance 0.20, Human Presence 0.25. An additional E+O interaction bonus applies when both knowledge is explicit and evaluation is objective.

What data sources does AIR use?

AIR aggregates from BLS OES 2023 (798 occupations employment data), O*NET (task structure labels), Eloundou et al. 2023 (LLM exposure measurement across 19,265 tasks), OpenAI GDPval (AI vs human expert blind evaluation), and the World Economic Forum Future of Jobs Report 2025.

How does AIR differ from MBTI?

MBTI measures personality. AIR measures occupational AI-replacement risk. Both use four binary dimensions producing a 4-letter code, but AIR's dimensions are grounded in automation economics literature and the output is backed by employment data from 798 real occupations.

What is the current industry-wide AI replacement rate?

As of 2026, the employment-weighted industry-wide AI replacement rate is 24.7%, calculated as Task Exposure (34.8%, Eloundou et al. 2023) times AI Win Rate vs human experts (71.3%, OpenAI GDPval).

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TSFH

The Irreplaceable

“You ARE the product — no one can automate who you are”

Low Risk

代替確率

10%–25%

予測年範囲

2042–2058

リスク等級

Low Risk

Tacit + Subjective + Flexible + Human: Physical experience + subjective quality + the person IS the work

超能力

Your identity IS the value — physical artistry, subjective taste, and personal presence fused into one

弱点

Deepfakes and AI avatars are blurring the line between real and synthetic presence

4つのバリア次元

学習可能性 — 暗黙型 (T)

AIはあなたの仕事に必要な知識やスキルを習得・学習できますか？

評価客観性 — 主観型 (S)

あなたの仕事に「正解」はありますか？品質を客観的に測定できますか？

許容度 — 柔軟型 (F)

AIがミスをした場合、その結果を許容できますか？その出力を信頼できますか？

人格依存性 — 人間型 (H)

あなたの価値は「何を作るか」にありますか、それとも「あなたが誰であるか」にありますか？

なぜ脆弱なのか

Errors are tolerable — AI can experiment and iterate in your domain without catastrophic consequences, allowing gradual capability building.

自然な防御

Physical mastery + subjective art + personal identity = the performer barrier. Athletes, dancers, master craftspeople — the person IS the work. AI producing "art" is not the same as you performing it.

典型的な職業

Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports & Media (27) — performing arts

代表的な職業リスク

Public Relations Specialists
Media relations and reputation management — AI drafts content but human relationships drive outcomes
19
Editors
AI-generated content increasing editorial volume — human taste, voice, and judgment remain differentiators
19
Interpreters and Translators
AI translation quality advancing rapidly — human value is in nuance, legal precision, and live interpretation
10
Graphic Designers
Generative AI disrupting visual production — designers who direct AI and handle strategy survive
9
Producers and Directors
Creative vision, talent management, and production orchestration are leadership roles with human stakes
4
Interior Designers
Client taste interpretation and spatial problem-solving on real projects require human collaboration
2

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