What is the AI Kill Threshold?

The AI Kill Threshold is a probability (0-100%) indicating how likely your occupation will be replaced by AI. It is calculated using the Swiss Cheese Barrier Model across four independent dimensions: Learnability, Evaluation Objectivity, Risk Tolerance, and Human Presence.

How is the replacement probability calculated?

Using a Weighted Power Mean with r=-2 across four dimensions. Learnability has weight 0.30, Evaluation Objectivity 0.25, Risk Tolerance 0.20, Human Presence 0.25. An additional E+O interaction bonus applies when both knowledge is explicit and evaluation is objective.

What data sources does AIR use?

AIR aggregates from BLS OES 2023 (798 occupations employment data), O*NET (task structure labels), Eloundou et al. 2023 (LLM exposure measurement across 19,265 tasks), OpenAI GDPval (AI vs human expert blind evaluation), and the World Economic Forum Future of Jobs Report 2025.

How does AIR differ from MBTI?

MBTI measures personality. AIR measures occupational AI-replacement risk. Both use four binary dimensions producing a 4-letter code, but AIR's dimensions are grounded in automation economics literature and the output is backed by employment data from 798 real occupations.

What is the current industry-wide AI replacement rate?

As of 2026, the employment-weighted industry-wide AI replacement rate is 24.7%, calculated as Task Exposure (34.8%, Eloundou et al. 2023) times AI Win Rate vs human experts (71.3%, OpenAI GDPval).

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TORP

The Steady Hand

“One wrong move and it's over — that's why they need you”

Medium Risk

Ersetzungswahrscheinlichkeit

34%–52%

Prognostizierter Jahresbereich

2033–2043

Risikostufe

Medium Risk

Tacit + Objective + Rigid + Product: Physical experience needed + errors are irreversible

Superkraft

Split-second physical judgment in irreversible situations

Schwäche

Surgical robots and autonomous vehicles are already in trials

Vier Barriere-Dimensionen

Lernbarkeit — Implizit (T)

Kann KI das Wissen und die Fähigkeiten erwerben und erlernen, die Ihr Job erfordert?

Bewertungsobjektivität — Objektiv (O)

Gibt es bei Ihrer Arbeit eine „richtige Antwort"? Lässt sich die Qualität objektiv messen?

Fehlertoleranz — Rigide (R)

Wenn die KI einen Fehler macht, sind die Folgen tragbar? Kann man ihrem Output vertrauen?

Personenabhängigkeit — Produkt (P)

Liegt Ihr Wert in „was Sie produzieren" oder in „wer Sie sind"?

Warum exponiert

Work is objectively measured and only output matters — when AI gets the physical capability, the replacement path is clear.

Natürliche Verteidigung

Hands-on experience + irreversible consequences = the highest physical-world barrier. Surgeons, pilots, precision builders — errors kill. Regulatory gatekeeping adds decades.

Typische Berufe

Healthcare Practitioners & Technical (29) — surgical, Transportation & Material Moving (53) — aviation, Construction & Extraction (47) — precision

Beispielberufe-Risiko

Construction Laborers
Unstructured outdoor environments and varied tasks make robotic replacement commercially infeasible
3
First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades
Real-time site coordination and safety oversight require physical presence and experienced judgment
3
Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters
Licensed trade with physical installation in unique building configurations — hard to automate
1
Electricians
Code compliance, troubleshooting, and physical wiring require licensed skill and safety awareness
2
Carpenters
Custom framing, finishing, and repair in varied conditions require adaptive physical skill
2
Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators
Heavy equipment in complex site conditions requires real-time human judgment for safety
2

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