What is the AI Kill Threshold?

The AI Kill Threshold is a probability (0-100%) indicating how likely your occupation will be replaced by AI. It is calculated using the Swiss Cheese Barrier Model across four independent dimensions: Learnability, Evaluation Objectivity, Risk Tolerance, and Human Presence.

How is the replacement probability calculated?

Using a Weighted Power Mean with r=-2 across four dimensions. Learnability has weight 0.30, Evaluation Objectivity 0.25, Risk Tolerance 0.20, Human Presence 0.25. An additional E+O interaction bonus applies when both knowledge is explicit and evaluation is objective.

What data sources does AIR use?

AIR aggregates from BLS OES 2023 (798 occupations employment data), O*NET (task structure labels), Eloundou et al. 2023 (LLM exposure measurement across 19,265 tasks), OpenAI GDPval (AI vs human expert blind evaluation), and the World Economic Forum Future of Jobs Report 2025.

How does AIR differ from MBTI?

MBTI measures personality. AIR measures occupational AI-replacement risk. Both use four binary dimensions producing a 4-letter code, but AIR's dimensions are grounded in automation economics literature and the output is backed by employment data from 798 real occupations.

What is the current industry-wide AI replacement rate?

As of 2026, the employment-weighted industry-wide AI replacement rate is 24.7%, calculated as Task Exposure (34.8%, Eloundou et al. 2023) times AI Win Rate vs human experts (71.3%, OpenAI GDPval).

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TORH

The Healing Hand

“When lives are on the line, no one asks for the AI”

Low Risk

代替確率

12%–28%

予測年範囲

2040–2055

リスク等級

Low Risk

Tacit + Objective + Rigid + Human: Physical experience + irreversible errors + patient trust

超能力

Physical healing skill combined with irreversible stakes and deep patient trust

弱点

AI diagnostics are already more accurate — the hands may be last to go, but the mind goes first

4つのバリア次元

学習可能性 — 暗黙型 (T)

AIはあなたの仕事に必要な知識やスキルを習得・学習できますか？

評価客観性 — 客観型 (O)

あなたの仕事に「正解」はありますか？品質を客観的に測定できますか？

許容度 — 厳格型 (R)

AIがミスをした場合、その結果を許容できますか？その出力を信頼できますか？

人格依存性 — 人間型 (H)

あなたの価値は「何を作るか」にありますか、それとも「あなたが誰であるか」にありますか？

なぜ脆弱なのか

Work is objectively evaluated — when AI achieves physical capability AND earns regulatory trust, objective metrics make the replacement case clear.

自然な防御

Tacit physical knowledge + irreversible stakes + patient/client trust = the triple fortress. Dental surgeons, obstetricians, specialized therapists — trust built through human touch.

典型的な職業

Healthcare Practitioners & Technical (29) — dental/obstetric, Healthcare Support (31)

代表的な職業リスク

Nurse Practitioners
Advanced clinical judgment and prescribing authority — AI assists diagnosis but liability stays with NP
5
Medical Assistants
Clinical procedures and patient preparation require physical skill and compassionate presence
3
Registered Nurses
Bedside care, patient advocacy, and real-time clinical judgment cannot be digitized away
2
Pharmacy Technicians
Dispensing automation advancing — technicians shift to patient counseling and exception handling
2
Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses
Direct patient care under supervision — physical and emotional presence is the core value
2
Nursing Assistants
Personal care, mobility assistance, and human dignity in daily routines resist automation
2

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