What is the AI Kill Threshold?

The AI Kill Threshold is a probability (0-100%) indicating how likely your occupation will be replaced by AI. It is calculated using the Swiss Cheese Barrier Model across four independent dimensions: Learnability, Evaluation Objectivity, Risk Tolerance, and Human Presence.

How is the replacement probability calculated?

Using a Weighted Power Mean with r=-2 across four dimensions. Learnability has weight 0.30, Evaluation Objectivity 0.25, Risk Tolerance 0.20, Human Presence 0.25. An additional E+O interaction bonus applies when both knowledge is explicit and evaluation is objective.

What data sources does AIR use?

AIR aggregates from BLS OES 2023 (798 occupations employment data), O*NET (task structure labels), Eloundou et al. 2023 (LLM exposure measurement across 19,265 tasks), OpenAI GDPval (AI vs human expert blind evaluation), and the World Economic Forum Future of Jobs Report 2025.

How does AIR differ from MBTI?

MBTI measures personality. AIR measures occupational AI-replacement risk. Both use four binary dimensions producing a 4-letter code, but AIR's dimensions are grounded in automation economics literature and the output is backed by employment data from 798 real occupations.

What is the current industry-wide AI replacement rate?

As of 2026, the employment-weighted industry-wide AI replacement rate is 24.7%, calculated as Task Exposure (34.8%, Eloundou et al. 2023) times AI Win Rate vs human experts (71.3%, OpenAI GDPval).

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TOFH

The Signature Touch

“People don't pay for the haircut — they pay for YOUR haircut”

Medium Risk

대체 확률

32%–50%

예측 연도 범위

2033–2042

리스크 등급

Medium Risk

Tacit + Objective + Flexible + Human: Physical skills needed + clients come for you specifically

초능력

Physical craft combined with personal connection — clients come for the experience of YOU

약점

Scaling is your weakness — AI doesn't need appointments

네 가지 장벽 차원

학습 가능성 — 암묵적 (T)

AI가 당신의 업무에 필요한 지식과 기술을 습득하고 학습할 수 있나요?

평가 객관성 — 객관적 (O)

당신의 업무에 "정답"이 있나요? 성과를 객관적으로 측정할 수 있나요?

오류 허용도 — 유연형 (F)

AI가 실수하면 그 결과를 감당할 수 있나요? 그 산출물을 신뢰할 수 있나요?

인격 의존성 — 인간형 (H)

당신의 가치는 "무엇을 만드느냐"에 있나요, 아니면 "당신이 누구인지"에 있나요?

왜 노출되었는가

Work is objectively evaluated and errors are forgivable — AI can measure success clearly and iterate freely.

자연 방어

Physical experience IS the skill AND people choose you specifically — AI would need both a body and a personality. Robotics + social AI is the hardest combination.

대표 직업

Personal Care & Service (39)

대표 직업 리스크

Amusement and Recreation Attendants
In-person hospitality and crowd management — guest experience is inherently human-delivered
6
Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists
Tactile craft and aesthetic consultation — clients pay for human touch and personal relationship
4
Manicurists and Pedicurists
Fine manual dexterity on varied clients — robotic alternatives not commercially viable
3
Exercise Trainers and Group Fitness Instructors
Motivation, form correction, and accountability are physical and relational — AI apps supplement not replace
2
Childcare Workers
Child safety, emotional nurturing, and developmental support require constant human presence
1
Animal Caretakers
Daily care, behavioral monitoring, and animal welfare require physical attentiveness
2

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