What is the AI Kill Threshold?

The AI Kill Threshold is a probability (0-100%) indicating how likely your occupation will be replaced by AI. It is calculated using the Swiss Cheese Barrier Model across four independent dimensions: Learnability, Evaluation Objectivity, Risk Tolerance, and Human Presence.

How is the replacement probability calculated?

Using a Weighted Power Mean with r=-2 across four dimensions. Learnability has weight 0.30, Evaluation Objectivity 0.25, Risk Tolerance 0.20, Human Presence 0.25. An additional E+O interaction bonus applies when both knowledge is explicit and evaluation is objective.

What data sources does AIR use?

AIR aggregates from BLS OES 2023 (798 occupations employment data), O*NET (task structure labels), Eloundou et al. 2023 (LLM exposure measurement across 19,265 tasks), OpenAI GDPval (AI vs human expert blind evaluation), and the World Economic Forum Future of Jobs Report 2025.

How does AIR differ from MBTI?

MBTI measures personality. AIR measures occupational AI-replacement risk. Both use four binary dimensions producing a 4-letter code, but AIR's dimensions are grounded in automation economics literature and the output is backed by employment data from 798 real occupations.

What is the current industry-wide AI replacement rate?

As of 2026, the employment-weighted industry-wide AI replacement rate is 24.7%, calculated as Task Exposure (34.8%, Eloundou et al. 2023) times AI Win Rate vs human experts (71.3%, OpenAI GDPval).

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TOFH

The Signature Touch

“People don't pay for the haircut — they pay for YOUR haircut”

Medium Risk

代替確率

32%–50%

予測年範囲

2033–2042

リスク等級

Medium Risk

Tacit + Objective + Flexible + Human: Physical skills needed + clients come for you specifically

超能力

Physical craft combined with personal connection — clients come for the experience of YOU

弱点

Scaling is your weakness — AI doesn't need appointments

4つのバリア次元

学習可能性 — 暗黙型 (T)

AIはあなたの仕事に必要な知識やスキルを習得・学習できますか？

評価客観性 — 客観型 (O)

あなたの仕事に「正解」はありますか？品質を客観的に測定できますか？

許容度 — 柔軟型 (F)

AIがミスをした場合、その結果を許容できますか？その出力を信頼できますか？

人格依存性 — 人間型 (H)

あなたの価値は「何を作るか」にありますか、それとも「あなたが誰であるか」にありますか？

なぜ脆弱なのか

Work is objectively evaluated and errors are forgivable — AI can measure success clearly and iterate freely.

自然な防御

Physical experience IS the skill AND people choose you specifically — AI would need both a body and a personality. Robotics + social AI is the hardest combination.

典型的な職業

Personal Care & Service (39)

代表的な職業リスク

Amusement and Recreation Attendants
In-person hospitality and crowd management — guest experience is inherently human-delivered
6
Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists
Tactile craft and aesthetic consultation — clients pay for human touch and personal relationship
4
Manicurists and Pedicurists
Fine manual dexterity on varied clients — robotic alternatives not commercially viable
3
Exercise Trainers and Group Fitness Instructors
Motivation, form correction, and accountability are physical and relational — AI apps supplement not replace
2
Childcare Workers
Child safety, emotional nurturing, and developmental support require constant human presence
1
Animal Caretakers
Daily care, behavioral monitoring, and animal welfare require physical attentiveness
2

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