What is the AI Kill Threshold?

The AI Kill Threshold is a probability (0-100%) indicating how likely your occupation will be replaced by AI. It is calculated using the Swiss Cheese Barrier Model across four independent dimensions: Learnability, Evaluation Objectivity, Risk Tolerance, and Human Presence.

How is the replacement probability calculated?

Using a Weighted Power Mean with r=-2 across four dimensions. Learnability has weight 0.30, Evaluation Objectivity 0.25, Risk Tolerance 0.20, Human Presence 0.25. An additional E+O interaction bonus applies when both knowledge is explicit and evaluation is objective.

What data sources does AIR use?

AIR aggregates from BLS OES 2023 (798 occupations employment data), O*NET (task structure labels), Eloundou et al. 2023 (LLM exposure measurement across 19,265 tasks), OpenAI GDPval (AI vs human expert blind evaluation), and the World Economic Forum Future of Jobs Report 2025.

How does AIR differ from MBTI?

MBTI measures personality. AIR measures occupational AI-replacement risk. Both use four binary dimensions producing a 4-letter code, but AIR's dimensions are grounded in automation economics literature and the output is backed by employment data from 798 real occupations.

What is the current industry-wide AI replacement rate?

As of 2026, the employment-weighted industry-wide AI replacement rate is 24.7%, calculated as Task Exposure (34.8%, Eloundou et al. 2023) times AI Win Rate vs human experts (71.3%, OpenAI GDPval).

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ESRH

The Oracle

“People trust your judgment with their careers, fortunes, and lives”

Low Risk

代替確率

15%–30%

予測年範囲

2038–2052

リスク等級

Low Risk

Explicit + Subjective + Rigid + Human: AI can learn knowledge, but subjective quality + high liability + clients trust the person

超能力

Decades of judgment that carries legal and moral weight — AI has opinions, you have authority

弱点

AI is accessible 24/7 and costs nothing — some will choose convenience over credentials

4つのバリア次元

学習可能性 — 顕在型 (E)

AIはあなたの仕事に必要な知識やスキルを習得・学習できますか？

評価客観性 — 主観型 (S)

あなたの仕事に「正解」はありますか？品質を客観的に測定できますか？

許容度 — 厳格型 (R)

AIがミスをした場合、その結果を許容できますか？その出力を信頼できますか？

人格依存性 — 人間型 (H)

あなたの価値は「何を作るか」にありますか、それとも「あなたが誰であるか」にありますか？

なぜ脆弱なのか

Knowledge is explicit and digitized — AI can learn everything you know from documentation and data. This is your one exposed flank.

自然な防御

Three powerful barriers: subjective quality judgment, irreversible consequences, and personal trust. Think senior partners, consulting leaders, attending physicians — authority that takes decades to build.

典型的な職業

Legal (23) — partners, Management (11) — consulting, Healthcare Practitioners & Technical (29) — attending physicians

代表的な職業リスク

Administrative Law Judges
Rule-based adjudication on structured cases — AI can assist research but decisions carry legal weight
15
Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators
Dispute resolution depends on interpersonal trust and contextual judgment
15
Judicial Law Clerks
Legal research and memo drafting increasingly AI-assisted — judgment and synthesis remain human
12
Judges, Magistrate Judges, and Magistrates
Constitutional authority and moral reasoning make judicial decisions irreducibly human
11
Paralegals and Legal Assistants
Document review and case research automating fast — value shifts to complex filings and client contact
6
Lawyers
Professional liability, bar licensure, and client trust create deep structural moats
2

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