What is the AI Kill Threshold?

The AI Kill Threshold is a probability (0-100%) indicating how likely your occupation will be replaced by AI. It is calculated using the Swiss Cheese Barrier Model across four independent dimensions: Learnability, Evaluation Objectivity, Risk Tolerance, and Human Presence.

How is the replacement probability calculated?

Using a Weighted Power Mean with r=-2 across four dimensions. Learnability has weight 0.30, Evaluation Objectivity 0.25, Risk Tolerance 0.20, Human Presence 0.25. An additional E+O interaction bonus applies when both knowledge is explicit and evaluation is objective.

What data sources does AIR use?

AIR aggregates from BLS OES 2023 (798 occupations employment data), O*NET (task structure labels), Eloundou et al. 2023 (LLM exposure measurement across 19,265 tasks), OpenAI GDPval (AI vs human expert blind evaluation), and the World Economic Forum Future of Jobs Report 2025.

How does AIR differ from MBTI?

MBTI measures personality. AIR measures occupational AI-replacement risk. Both use four binary dimensions producing a 4-letter code, but AIR's dimensions are grounded in automation economics literature and the output is backed by employment data from 798 real occupations.

What is the current industry-wide AI replacement rate?

As of 2026, the employment-weighted industry-wide AI replacement rate is 24.7%, calculated as Task Exposure (34.8%, Eloundou et al. 2023) times AI Win Rate vs human experts (71.3%, OpenAI GDPval).

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ESFH

The Living Brand

“AI can mimic your style, but it can't BE you”

Medium Risk

代替確率

35%–52%

予測年範囲

2031–2039

リスク等級

Medium Risk

Explicit + Subjective + Flexible + Human: AI can learn, but quality is subjective + fans trust the person

超能力

Personal brand and audience loyalty that follows the person, not the content

弱点

AI influencers are already gaining followers — and they never have a bad day

4つのバリア次元

学習可能性 — 顕在型 (E)

AIはあなたの仕事に必要な知識やスキルを習得・学習できますか？

評価客観性 — 主観型 (S)

あなたの仕事に「正解」はありますか？品質を客観的に測定できますか？

許容度 — 柔軟型 (F)

AIがミスをした場合、その結果を許容できますか？その出力を信頼できますか？

人格依存性 — 人間型 (H)

あなたの価値は「何を作るか」にありますか、それとも「あなたが誰であるか」にありますか？

なぜ脆弱なのか

Knowledge is accessible and errors are tolerable — AI can learn your domain and iterate without consequences.

自然な防御

Quality is in the eye of the beholder AND your audience trusts YOU — creative judgment plus personal brand form a powerful defense.

典型的な職業

Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports & Media (27) — content creators, Educational Instruction & Library (25)

代表的な職業リスク

Health Specialties Teachers, Postsecondary
Clinical knowledge delivery — AI tutoring supplements but credential requirements persist
20
Middle School Teachers
AI tools augment lesson delivery — emotional development and classroom management remain human
20
Secondary School Teachers
Subject expertise commoditized online — teacher value is mentorship and motivation
17
Elementary School Teachers
Child development and socialization require human relationship — curriculum delivery augmented by AI
14
Self-Enrichment Teachers
Personal coaching and motivation are the product — AI cannot replicate the human accountability bond
12
Preschool Teachers
Physical care, emotional attunement, and early development are deeply human work
7

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