What is the AI Kill Threshold?

The AI Kill Threshold is a probability (0-100%) indicating how likely your occupation will be replaced by AI. It is calculated using the Swiss Cheese Barrier Model across four independent dimensions: Learnability, Evaluation Objectivity, Risk Tolerance, and Human Presence.

How is the replacement probability calculated?

Using a Weighted Power Mean with r=-2 across four dimensions. Learnability has weight 0.30, Evaluation Objectivity 0.25, Risk Tolerance 0.20, Human Presence 0.25. An additional E+O interaction bonus applies when both knowledge is explicit and evaluation is objective.

What data sources does AIR use?

AIR aggregates from BLS OES 2023 (798 occupations employment data), O*NET (task structure labels), Eloundou et al. 2023 (LLM exposure measurement across 19,265 tasks), OpenAI GDPval (AI vs human expert blind evaluation), and the World Economic Forum Future of Jobs Report 2025.

How does AIR differ from MBTI?

MBTI measures personality. AIR measures occupational AI-replacement risk. Both use four binary dimensions producing a 4-letter code, but AIR's dimensions are grounded in automation economics literature and the output is backed by employment data from 798 real occupations.

What is the current industry-wide AI replacement rate?

As of 2026, the employment-weighted industry-wide AI replacement rate is 24.7%, calculated as Task Exposure (34.8%, Eloundou et al. 2023) times AI Win Rate vs human experts (71.3%, OpenAI GDPval).

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EOFP

The Glass Cannon

“Your entire workflow is a tutorial for AI”

Extreme High Risk

Ersetzungswahrscheinlichkeit

82%–95%

Prognostizierter Jahresbereich

2027–2031

Risikostufe

Extreme High Risk

Explicit + Objective + Flexible + Product: Knowledge is transparent, evaluation is clear, errors are fixable, only results matter

Superkraft

Unmatched execution speed and systematic thinking

Schwäche

Every skill you have can be documented, measured, and automated

Vier Barriere-Dimensionen

Lernbarkeit — Explizit (E)

Kann KI das Wissen und die Fähigkeiten erwerben und erlernen, die Ihr Job erfordert?

Bewertungsobjektivität — Objektiv (O)

Gibt es bei Ihrer Arbeit eine „richtige Antwort"? Lässt sich die Qualität objektiv messen?

Fehlertoleranz — Flexibel (F)

Wenn die KI einen Fehler macht, sind die Folgen tragbar? Kann man ihrem Output vertrauen?

Personenabhängigkeit — Produkt (P)

Liegt Ihr Wert in „was Sie produzieren" oder in „wer Sie sind"?

Warum exponiert

All four dimensions favor AI: knowledge is explicit and digitized, quality is objectively measurable, errors are tolerable and fixable, and only the output matters — not who produces it. Current narrow AI already handles most of this.

Natürliche Verteidigung

None from the four dimensions. Your only defense is speed of organizational adoption — bureaucracy and change resistance may buy time, but not protection.

Typische Berufe

Office & Administrative Support (43), Business & Financial Operations (13) — entry-level positions

Beispielberufe-Risiko

Customer Service Representatives
Scripted, high-volume interactions — chatbots already handle majority of L1 queries
46
Office Clerks, General
Routine document handling and data entry — workflow automation replaces most tasks
17
Secretaries and Administrative Assistants
Scheduling, filing, correspondence — AI assistants handle routine coordination
16
Receptionists and Information Clerks
Information lookup and appointment booking — automated kiosks and voice AI replacing role
15
Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants
Regulated documentation and coding — EHR systems automate scheduling and billing
10
Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks
Rule-based number reconciliation — accounting software handles end-to-end bookkeeping
9

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